Probably Stolen: Best Ways to Make Money Fast, From Early Water to Late Arbitrage

Which starting perks to take

The perk choice decides how smooth the first 15 days are. Tested priority:

Perk	Effect	Verdict
Savings	Extra starting cash	First choice — starting capital is the scarcest early resource
Vigilant	Anti-theft at night	Second choice, avoids silent inventory losses
Model Citizen	Suits a reporting build	Take it if you plan to farm Security reputation
Secret Admirer	Unreliable payoff	Skip — do not gamble on it early
Sentinel Collapse Disorder	Negative pressure	Do not tick it on a first run

Difficulty sets your earning ceiling

Mode	Retail markup	Rent increase	Permit	Reputation
Price Gouge (Cozy)	+20%	+2% each time	500	gains ×1.5, losses ×0.5
Mark Up (Normal)	+15%	+5% each time	1,500	×1 / ×1
Thin Margins (Hard)	none	+10% each time	2,000	gains ×0.75, losses ×1.25
Red Ink (Challenge)	none	+10% each time	3,000	gains ×0.5, losses ×2

Price Gouge is the first-run pick: the highest retail markup and the slowest rent rises, with reputation gains boosted and losses halved. Only Thin Margins or Red Ink qualifies for From Nothing, the Hard Way.Player-tested

Early game (days 1–15): 99.18% water plus blackout battery sales

The water line in four steps

Rust water sterilised with a UV light, processed through the Hydratech Micro Purifier and filtered again with a bottle and filter reliably produces 99.18% high-quality water.Player-tested

The only inputs are the UV light, the Micro Purifier, the bottle and the filter, and the output is the steadiest cash flow of the early and mid game. Get this loop running before day 15 and rent stops being a threat.

Battery arbitrage: wait for the blackout

A Recharger refills depleted energy cells, and cell prices spike during power outages and water crises.Player-tested

The rhythm:

1. Buy depleted energy cells from customers cheaply while they are worthless;
2. Charge them overnight with the Recharger;
3. Watch the newspaper forecast for a power outage or water crisis;
4. Dump the charged stock into the spike.

This is event-driven arbitrage: stock costs almost nothing, and the event window clears it all at once.

Mid game (days 15–40): appraisal jobs plus wine compounding

Appraisal work: no stock cost

After paying the membership fee, customers bring goods to you for valuation and you earn the appraisal fee rather than a margin — there is no inventory risk. The Appraisal Board opens on day 8; membership costs 85 credits on Mark Up.Player-tested

• Early: cybernetic hands;
• Mid: plasma cartridges;
• Always check scratches and serial numbers, which decide authenticity and the valuation band.

Ten perfect appraisals unlock the An Eye for Value achievement.Player-tested

Premium wine: the steadiest compounding mid game

One large grape, one small grape and super yeast on a 750ml high-quality water base brews premium wine in one day: base price 175, rising +5.25 per day in AgeWell.Player-tested

Premium wine has the best daily appreciation of any product — +5.25 a day, over +105 across 20 days, nearly double. The right mid-game move is not to sell immediately but to brew and age, converting cash into stock that appreciates on its own. Full recipes and grade comparisons are in production chains and machine upgrades.

Late game (after day 40): 85% stock runs and display-case clearing

Tool-material arbitrage

This requires 100 Lower Levels reputation for the permanent 15% discount at Joe Wild and Dr. Jackson. Then:

1. Buy tools, batteries, modules and nodes from Dr. Jackson at 85% at night;
2. Display one tool-material item worth 350+ base credits by day;
3. The Inventor arrives the next day carrying 1,000+ credits and clears the shelf;
4. Bank a 15%+ margin without spending water-line capacity.

Display-case rules and the first-tag mechanic are covered in the faction reputation guide.

6000ml bottles: five figures in a day

Three 6000ml bottles of high-quality water (or pure-water labelled bottles) in the display case attract Upper Levels water hoarders and can produce five-figure single-day revenue.Player-tested

This closes the loop: the water line supplies, the two-stage Bottle Printer upgrade (6 then 12 electronic components) unlocks the large bottle, and the display case finds a buyer willing to take the whole batch.

Buying the shop

On this route, paying in full or taking the mortgage within 50 days is realistic, and it unlocks Prodigious. The deed starts around 12,000 on Mark Up, 24,000 on Thin Margins and 36,000 on Red Ink, and rises daily; the mortgage spreads the one-off cost. Buying the shop triggers the ending settlement, so save manually first if you want to keep playing.

The standard daily rotation

Costs and risks

• Reputation trade-offs: reporting criminals costs Lower Levels reputation and therefore the 15% discount. Max Lower Levels before farming Security.
• Fake goods: relabelled water and fake cigarettes raise short-term prices but cost reputation when spotted, and they break Clean Hands.
• Event dependency: battery arbitrage lives on outage and water-crisis windows; outside those, margins are ordinary. Do not put all your cash in cells.
• Capacity ceiling: the water line and winemaking are limited by power and machine slots. Count the daily draw before expanding.

FAQ

What if I have no starting capital?

Start with the cheapest water line: rust water is nearly free, and the UV light plus Micro Purifier are the only early purchases. Buy the Recharger once the first money is in.

Should I sell wine or age it?

Sell early when cash is tight; start ageing in the mid game, where premium wine gains +5.25 a day. Do not lock all your cash in wine — keep rent and restock money liquid.

The wrong buyer keeps showing up — why?

Check the item's first main tag. The game only reads the first tag, so the wrong tag summons the wrong buyer. Swap in a high-value item of the category you actually want.

Does this route conflict with Clean Hands?

Not inherently, but relabelling water or selling fake cigarettes breaks Clean Hands. Run that achievement on a separate legal-only save.

Read next

• Full water, furnace and wine numbers: production chains and machine upgrades
• Reputation and display-case rules: factions, permits and rich buyers
• Clean up the achievement list: all 21 achievements